SHOCKING: Collingwood ask deadline trade signing to leave.

The contenders are often obvious very early in the season.

Last year, Collingwood was flying after three rounds, stunning Geelong in their opener before demolishing eventual top-four side Port Adelaide. They looked like the best team in it, and they were.

In 2022, Geelong was top of the ladder after Round 1. A year earlier, eventual Grand Finalists Melbourne and the Bulldogs were up there early, and turned out to be the last two unbeaten teams. We could go on.

So what have the first three and a half rounds in 2024 told us?

According to Fox Footy expert David King, that “this is a very winnable flag”, adding of last year’s Grand Finalists: “Brisbane’s slightly off, Collingwood’s still slightly off.”

As the last two contenders from 2023 languish outside the top eight, we’re left with six teams tied on three wins after three rounds – the unbeaten quartet of GWS, Geelong, Fremantle and Carlton, plus Melbourne and Sydney who’ve also lost a game.

You’ve also got the 2-1 Western Bulldogs, who’ve bounced back strongly from their Round 1 disappointment against the Demons, plus a 2-1 Port Adelaide side who both coaches agreed played better than Melbourne in their Saturday night loss (more on that below).

Don’t forget 2-1 Essendon, whose midfield genuinely looks elite through three rounds and just knocked off a 1-2 St Kilda side whose other loss came in tight fashion at the Cattery, while also impressing against Collingwood.

And of course, you can’t count out the Magpies, who should be 2-3 assuming they beat Hawthorn in next week’s Gather Round. Throw in Brisbane, who will surely get it together and start winning at least a few games of footy at the Gabba.

The premiership favourite right now is GWS, but their one good win over Collingwood doesn’t look quite as impressive right now, given what the Magpies have done since. Their other two victories, over North Melbourne and West Coast, were exactly what we expected but no more than that.

The fact they’re playing so well without much impact from Toby Greene is a little scary, but they haven’t played an actually good team in almost a month, so we still need to see a little more to be definitive about their quality.

At the very least we can say for sure that two of the top contenders coming into the season, the Magpies and Lions, are coming from a long ways back. They might get there but will have to spend a lot of tickets to do so.

It opens up two spots in the top four for sides like Fremantle and Geelong, who have the chance to continue their fast starts and virtually cement a spot in September by the byes. Melbourne, Carlton and Sydney were expected contenders, but by starting well, they can afford to stumble at times without falling behind.

Maybe it’s the year of the orange team. But other than them, you can throw a blanket over a bunch of contenders.

Looks like a very winnable flag to us, too.

WILL PIES BE LEFT REGRETTING SCHULTZ TRADE?

Some suggested Magpies recruit Lachie Schultz was set to be the best pickup for any club through the trade period. Though only four games into Collingwood’s 1-3 season, there’s a question mark hovering over the move.

There’s a couple of layers to this.

Firstly, the sheer price Collingwood gave to secure the 26-year old from Fremantle. The Pies met the Dockers’ high demands given Schultz was under contract, handing over Pick 34 and their 2024 first-round pick.

It was thought that future first-rounder would be roughly in the Pick 15 range given the reigning premiers were widely expected to finish in the top four again. So while it’s still only the very early stages of this season, Craig McRae’s side is currently 12th on the ladder – meaning it’s current selection owed to Freo would be Pick 7.

There’s clearly a world where Collingwood turns its season around – it’s already begun to – but the club wouldn’t have even considered the possibility of this year’s pick being as high as it currently is amid a slow start.

You also can’t begrudge the premiers for trying to make a win-now move; it can cost you, as West Coast saw when it traded for Tim Kelly, but it can also take you over the top, like Richmond adding Tom Lynch (even if that was via free agency not a trade – it still cost them the salary).

Meanwhile the Dockers have two additional first-round picks – their own and one linked to Port Adelaide – selections they could either take to the draft or use as currency to try and lure a big fish – maybe one who plays for Sydney…

The other intriguing element is that Schultz, who essentially replaced Jack Ginnivan as a pressure, goalkicking small forward, has largely underwhelmed in black and white. Through four games, he’s averaged 11.5 disposals and 3.8 tackles and booted three goals.

Granted, a lot of what Schultz does won’t necessarily show up on the stat sheet, with pressure and forward 50 tackles his one wood. And these trademarks are effectively what sparked life into Collingwood’s premiership defence in its first win of 2024 over Brisbane.

After a quiet first half, we saw Schultz’s strengths come to the fore against the Lions including a huge second effort in the third quarter that led to a crucial Brody Mihocek goal on the goal line.

“I really love this,” dual premiership Kangaroo David King said of the play on Fox Footy.

It’s moments like this Pies recruiters would be sitting back saying: ‘And that’s why we got him’.

You’ve also got to cut Schultz some slack given Collingwood has been out of sorts to start 2024 and even its biggest stars have struggled.

In other words, it’s a team that’s been hard to look good in, particularly after three-straight losses. Just because Schultz is the newest addition to the team, doesn’t mean he should cop extra criticism.

We finally saw the wheel start to turn for McRae’s side last Thursday night at the Gabba, with Schultz one of Collingwood’s more influential players in the second half. He got his hands dirty and did the two-way grunt work – laying the equal third-most tackles of any Magpie (six) – even if he wasn’t rewarded for it on the scoreboard.

But more efforts like that and the reward should come in due time.

Nick Daicos post-match gave a special shout out to Collingwood’s “role players” and “unsung heroes” including Schultz.

“Another one I want to give two massive shout outs too is Lachie Schultz and John Noble. They both stepped up tonight,” Daicos told Fox Footy post-match.

“They don’t need to to have a lot of the ball or kick many goals, but they’ll always be there setting us up.”