SAD NEWS: Another Dangerous Departure for Cincinnati Reds
Five years ago, the Draft would have taken place this week and we’d already know which prospects were headed where. In 2024, it’s still 38 days away.
Most players have finished competing, though the three best prospects in the Draft and nine other potential first-rounders will compete in NCAA Super Regionals this weekend, and a few high schoolers are still active. The biggest event remaining on the calendar is the MLB Draft Combine from June 18-23 at Chase Field in Phoenix, where teams can dig deeper on makeup (via interviews) and medical information (via exams). In addition to finalizing evaluations of player ability, clubs also will have to determine signability before the Draft kicks off July 14 in Fort Worth, Texas.
There’s more gossip than hard intel at this point. A year ago at this time, rumors swirled that the Pirates were leaning toward cutting a discount deal with the top pick, the Tigers coveted college bats at No. 3 and the Twins didn’t want a high schooler at No. 5. As it turned out, Pittsburgh gave Paul Skenes a record bonus, while Detroit and Minnesota popped prep outfielders Max Clark and Walker Jenkins.
Teams have yet to zero in on their targets, so don’t read too much into the fact that the first five picks in our latest projection below match Jonathan Mayo’s mock draft from last week. The Guardians have been very quiet about their plans for the No. 1 overall choice, everything is still very fluid and there’s little consensus about how to line up the prospects beyond the top 10. Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana and Georgia outfielder/third baseman Charlie Condon are on a tier by themselves, followed by four more college bats (Florida first baseman/left-hander Jac Caglianone, Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz, West Virginia shortstop JJ Wetherholt, Texas A&M outfielder Braden Montgomery), two college arms (Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns, Arkansas left-hander Hagen Smith) and a pair of prep shortstops (Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer).
Most clubs believe the Guardians will take Bazzana because he’s the best pure hitter available and fits their model better than anyone. If it’s not Bazzana, teams think Plan B will be to take a large discount with a player who won’t go in the first few selections, with possibilities such as Burns, Wetherholt and Griffin. There’s surprisingly little buzz about Condon at No. 1 despite him and Bazzana separating themselves from the rest of the pack.
The Reds’ decision looks as simple as taking whomever the Guardians leave on the table between Bazzana and Condon, who is the biggest offensive force in the Draft. He currently leads NCAA Division I in both hitting (.445) and home runs (36, a record since the NCAA instituted stricter bat guidelines in 2011). Cincinnati does need pitching and could opt for Burns, but that seems unlikely.
The Rockies appear to favor pitchers over hitters and seem to prefer Burns to Smith after both broke the D-I record for strikeout rate in a season (Smith at 17.3 per nine innings, Burns at 17.2). Neither pitched well while their teams got eliminated in NCAA regional play last weekend, but that doesn’t affect their Draft status. It’s unclear whether Colorado would take an arm over Condon or Bazzana.
The Athletics are focusing on college bats with Montgomery and Florida first baseman/left-hander Jac Caglianone moving ahead of Kurtz.
This pick is wide open. It’s probably a position player from a large group that includes Montgomery and Caglianone, and this could be the realistic ceiling for Wetherholt, Griffin or Rainer. Despite the hype surrounding his two-way ability, Caglianone almost certainly will become a full-time slugger as a pro.
The Royals appear to prefer Rainer to Griffin but could be tempted by Smith. Don’t rule out the college bats mentioned above either.
The Cardinals haven’t drafted this high since taking J.D. Drew fifth overall in 1998 and could have a rare opportunity to select a frontline starter in Smith or Burns. If they’re both gone, St. Louis could turn to Montgomery, Wetherholt, Rainer or Kurtz.
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