DONE DEAL: Tigers have successfully land Top prospect in Mock Draft.

DONE DEAL: Tigers have successfully land Top prospect in Mock Draft.

You know it’s really Draft season when the first mock draft is out.

Between now and July 14, when the 2024 Draft begins, Jim Callis and I will be providing prognostications of the first round on a fairly regular basis with the hope that our final mocks the night before the Guardians get things going with the No. 1 pick are as close to accurate as we can get them.

It’s way too early now to project with any certainty who is going where. But I did connect with scouts from nearly every team in the first round to get a sense of where things stand as of this moment. Providing each team with a scenario of who I have going in front of them, I tried to make sure that each selection was someone the team would consider.

What does seem fairly certain as of right now is that there is some consensus that the top 11 names in our Top 150 have separated themselves. That’s not to say a team in the top 11 won’t take someone not in that list, allowing one (or more) of that 11 to drop down some. But this edition, I have those names going in the top 11, all but two of them college players, albeit not in the exact order of ranking.

The two areas I had trouble placing were the college catchers and, as is often the case, the high school pitching. Consider this a snapshot of where we are right now, with much, much more to come.

1. Guardians: Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia (No. 1)
There does seem to be consensus in the scouting industry that Condon, who brings his ridiculous .456/.563/1.088 line with 30 homers into this weekend’s series against Vanderbilt, is the best player in the class. Add in that the Guardians could use some right-handed power in the organization and this seems a natural fit.

2. Reds: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (No. 2)
If Condon is No. 1, Bazzana isn’t exactly a distant No. 2, with his 1.517 OPS, 21 homers and 10 steals. The left-handed-hitting second baseman does seem like a prototypical Reds college hitter type, one who should make it to the big leagues in a hurry.

3. Rockies: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida (No. 3)
Caglianone took big steps forward at the plate and on the mound, but his future seems to be as a left-handed slugger, one who has made terrific adjustments in terms of his approach and chase rate, allowing him to post a .402/.505/.862 line with 26 homers to date.

4. A’s: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M (No. 5)
The move from Standord to Texas A&M has been a good one for Montgomery, who is hitting .365/.502/.859 with 23 homers so far this spring. Teams in this 3-to-5 range might be considering Caglianone, Montgomery and the guy I have going next.

5. White Sox: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest (No. 4)
Kurtz has shaken off a slow start to the 2024 season and seems to homer in just about every game. He’s now up 18 long balls to go along with a .305/.524/.805 line. He has a 1.409 OPS in ACC play.

6. Royals: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep, Miss. (No. 9)
This seems like the first spot a high schooler could go, and new scouting director Brian Bridges does like prep bats. Griffin has perhaps the best all-around tools in the class and if there weren’t some small questions about his hit tool, he might be in the 1-1 conversation.

7. Cardinals: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas (No. 6)
The Cards did take college pitching in the first round in 2021 and 2022, though they weren’t picking this high. Smith has vaulted to the top of the pitching crop as the most consistent college starter, using two easily plus pitches to post a 1.35 ERA and an absurd 16.7 K/9 rate.

8. Angels: JJ Wetherholt, SS/2B, West Virginia (No. 8)
Hamstring issues kept Wetherholt off the field for a chunk of this spring and it’s concerned some because it’s a recurring injury. He spent last weekend at shortstop and assuming he hits like he always does once he gets going, he could sneak back up into top-five talk easily.

9. Pirates: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake, Calif. (No. 10)
There are those who prefer Rainer over Griffin because of certainty surrounding the hit tool. He’s made a huge leap forward into top 10 consideration as someone who can really hit — with pop — from the left side, while sticking at shortstop in a Corey Seager kind of way.

10. Nationals: Chase Burns, RHP, (No. 7)
No one has ever questioned Burns’ pure stuff; it was always a matter of command (especially in the zone). Heading to Wake Forest’s pitching lab has been a good move because the right-hander has walked just 2.7 per nine and given up just 5.7 hits per nine (vs. 7.5 at Tennessee in 2023) while not sacrificing anything in terms of missing bats (16.6 K/9).11. Tigers: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina (No. 11)
Thus ends the run of “the 11.” Yesavage has been extremely consistent, with a 1.73 ERA to go along with 15.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 rates, a reason why he vaulted from No. 36 on our Top 100 in December up to No. 11 overall.

12. Red Sox: Seaver King, 3B/OF, Wake Forest (No. 13)
As of right now, it seems like the Red Sox and Giants are in on the next wave of college bats, and it’s possible they both have the same two hitters atop that list. One is King, who hit .424 on the Cape last summer and has an OPS north of 1.000 this year in his first year at Wake. The other is …

13. Giants: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina (No. 23)
Honeycutt has very loud tools, with a very intriguing power-speed combination to go along with potential Gold Glove defense in center field. He went 20-20 as a freshman and he’s on his way this year, with 18 homers and 26 steals, but teams worry about his swing-and-miss (27.3 percent K rate in 2024).

14. Cubs: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State (No. 21)
After scuffling as a freshman, Smith turned it around and posted a .981 OPS on the Cape last summer. He’s more than kept it going this spring, with a .399/.478/.640 line while looking athletic at third in his sophomore-eligible season.

15. Mariners: Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee (No. 15)
Tennessee has several members of its lineup who could go early on in the Draft and Amick could very well lead that group. He transferred from Clemson and has a .360/.438/.799 line while proving to many skeptics that he can stick at third.

16. Marlins: James Tibbs, OF, Florida State (No. 22)
College performers at big programs often make huge leaps and that’s exactly what Tibbs has done. Scouts get a good 2-for-1 deal when they check out the Seminoles with Cam Smith and Tibbs, who has a 1.321 OPS, 18 homers and twice as many walks as strikeouts this spring.

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*