DEAL SAGA: My chances are slim, my extension is 50/50 Rams veteran petitions
The Los Angeles Rams will have quite some time before they will have to think about a potential contract extension for wide receiver Puka Nacua. Nacua is heading into his second season and won’t be eligible for a contract extension until 2026 when he completes his third year in the NFL.
As it stands, the Rams may have the best bargain in the NFL with Nacua as they paid close to $9500 per catch last season. For as good as Tyreek Hill was, the Miami Dolphins paid close to $450k per catch.
There may end up being a lot of movement on the wide receiver market this offseason. While that doesn’t affect the Rams now, it most certainly will in the future and the numbers now are at least worth paying attention to as contracts get signed.
On Tuesday, the Houston Texas signed Nico Collins to a three-year contract worth up to $24M per season.
Back in April, the Detroit Lions extended Amon-Ra St. Brown. Cee Dee Lamb and Justin Jefferson each need to get paid and Brandon Aiyuk reportedly wants $25M per season. By the time Nacua’s contract is eligible to be extended, Ja’Marr Chase will likely have signed an extension as well as Jaylen Waddle from the 2021 draft class. That doesn’t even mention Tee Higgins who is playing on the franchise tag.
At some point, there is going to be a domino effect of contract extensions for wide receivers. That inevitably is going to have an effect on any potential future contract for Nacua. The question here is just how much.
Right now, the top-paid wide receivers in the NFL in average salary are:
- AJ Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: $32M
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions: $30M
- Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins: $30M
- Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders, $28M
- Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams, $26.7M
Of course, this all depends on what Nacua is able to do over the next two years. Obviously it’s difficult to just expect him to have over 100 catches and 1500 yards per season. However, he should still have decent production. It’s also worth noting that Cooper Kupp’s contract is up after 2026 which is also the final year of Nacua’s deal. The final year of Kupp’s deal and when Nacua is up for an extension overlap. The Rams could move on from Kupp prior to 2026 and only take on $7M in dead cap. That would allow them to essentially replace Kupp’s old contract with Nacua’s.
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Over the next two years, Kupp will have a cap hit of $29.7M. Even if you were to put Nacua in the Collins tier of contract, with inflation over the next two years, that’s still an average of $27.6M. It’s hard to pay two wide receiver an excess of over $25M per season. In that case that Nacua continues to put up top wide receiver numbers, those are the type of contract numbers that should be expected at a minimum. That could obviously go above $30M per year depending on how Nacua produces over the next two seasons.
What could get interesting here is how teams begin to look at the wide receiver position. The wide receiver position is deeper than it’s ever been before in the NFL and finding a wide receiver that can produce is easier than in years past. It took the Rams from 2008 to 2016 to find a wide receiver to eclipse 1,000 yards. That type of drought wouldn’t happen in today’s NFL.
It’s fair to wonder whether or not wide receiver will become the next running back in the sense that it becomes less valuable to teams as the position is seen as replaceable. We may even be beginning to see the start of that. Is it better to draft a wide receiver high and let him walk after four or five years than pay that player big money.?
The Rams likely wouldn’t on from Nacua. However, in a Sean McVay offense can he take another day two or day three pick and turn them into a star-level wide receiver like Nacua? There’s obviously a mixture of talent and scheme here, but how much does the scheme benefit what Nacua is doing?
Nacua’s contract won’t be up for three more years and he has two more seasons until he is eligible for an extension. With that said, it feels like wide receiver contracts are about to hit a breaking point. How the wide receiver contracts shake out now could affect what the Rams pay Nacua down the line.
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