Avalanche big stars contract dangerously at stake

Though the 2024 Stanley Cup champion has yet to be crowned, the teams that have already been eliminated from the NHL Playoffs have started their offseason planning. The Colorado Avalanche are staring down a busy offseason on the heels of another disappointing playoff exit, this time at the hands of the Dallas Stars in the second round.

Beyond the NHL Entry Draft, the Avalanche must address their collection of pending free agents and make decisions on who should be re-signed, and who should be walked to the door. The NHL’s salary cap limit is projected to rise to $87.7 million next season and could potentially reach $92 million ahead of the 2025-26 campaign.

The Avalanche have nine free agents up for renewal this summer, but their offseason plans will be determined by two key players currently under contract in captain Gabriel Landeskog and winger Valeri Nichushkin. Assuming both Landeskog ($7 million cap hit) and Nichushkin ($6.125 million) are unavailable (for two wildly different reasons), the Avalanche are projected to have $22.9 million in cap space with 13 players under contract (seven forwards, four defensemen, and two goalies).

If one or both return at some point during the 2024-25 regular season, the Avalanche must have the cap room to move them to the active roster for cap purposes. If that is how their situations play out, the team will only have $9.8 million to sign (or promote) at least three more forwards and two defenders. The future of those two players significantly affects how the Avalanche do business in both the short- and long-term, and the front office should prepare for at least one of them to return during the upcoming season.

Now, let’s dive into the Avalanche’s free agents. Each player is accompanied by Evolving Hockey’s free agent contract projections. These projections are based on historical comparisons which take age, position, production, and whether a player is an unrestricted (UFA) or restricted (RFA) free agent into account.

The projections are presented with the most probable term (in years) and average annual value (AAV) of a given free agent’s next contract, though extenuating circumstances (such as the team’s cap crunch) may have an impact on the final terms of a deal.

Restricted Free Agents

The Avalanche only have a single RFA on the books this offseason, though he is arguably the most important pending free agent on the roster for the team’s long-term competitive aspirations.

Casey Mittelstadt, Center/Left Wing

Projected Contract: Three years, $5.78 million AAV

The acquisition of Casey Mittelstadt at the trade deadline looks to have finally cemented the second-line center position for the Avalanche since the departure of Nazem Kadri during the 2022 offseason.

Mittelstadt was eased into top-six duty as he got acclimatized to his new locale, tallying 10 points in 18 regular-season games with the Avalanche while playing under 16 minutes per night. His usage jumped to over 17 minutes per game in the playoffs (sixth among Avalanche forwards) and scored nine points in 11 games, flashing the playmaking ability that made him such a coveted trade target.

The Avalanche must extend Mittelstadt a qualifying offer worth $2.6 million to retain his RFA rights as he is coming off a three-year bridge deal worth $2.5 million annually. He is eligible for salary arbitration but is set to become a UFA next summer should he not agree to an extension or only agree to a one-year deal.

According to Evolving Hockey’s projections, there is a 70% chance that Mittelstadt will sign a three-to-five-year contract with an AAV between $5.78 million and $5.99 million. That is a very narrow range of compensation which should give the front office greater certainty in negotiations and roster-building this summer.

Unrestricted Free Agents

The Avalanche have five notable UFA forwards and three UFA defensemen needing new contracts for next season. Forward Zach Parise announced his retirement prior to the start of the 2024 Playoffs, so he is not included in this section.

Andrew Cogliano, Left Wing

Projected Contract: One year, $1.13 million AAV

Andrew Cogliano

While Andrew Cogliano has been a reliable and versatile contributor across his three-year tenure with the Avalanche, his future with the organization is unknown. The veteran forward turns 37 next month, has a young family, and has suffered several serious injuries in recent seasons, including a broken finger during the 2022 Playoffs and a fractured neck during the 2023 Playoffs.

Cogliano played under nine minutes per game during the 2024 Playoffs (13th out of 15 forwards), though he was second among Avalanche forwards in average shorthanded ice time behind only Yakov Trenin.

Cogliano won the Stanley Cup in 2022, so the prospect of chasing an elusive championship should not be figured into his calculations. The decision to come back for another season is his and if he returns, his cap hit cannot be much more than the $825,000 he earned this past season given the Avalanche’s looming cap crunch.

Andrew Cogliano returns on a one-year deal - Mile High Hockey

Jonathan Drouin, Left Wing/Right Wing

Projected Contract: Four years, $4.74 million AAV

The Avalanche’s biggest UFA decision comes in the form of playmaking winger Jonathan Drouin, who set new career-highs in both assists (37) and points (56) this season after signing a one-year, show-me deal with the hopes of reigniting his stagnating career. Drouin may have priced himself out of Colorado with his offensive outburst, but his history with junior teammate Nathan MacKinnon could persuade him into taking a discount to stay in a positive situation.

Evolving Hockey’s projections offer a 73% chance that Drouin will sign a contract between three to five years in length which carries an AAV between $4.32 and $5.27 million. There is greater variance in Drouin’s potential contract negotiations, but he is one player who I would guess comes in below those estimates due to the allure of long-term comfort and fit in the lineup.

The Avalanche may not have much leverage due to Nichushkin’s absence, which gives Drouin the opportunity to highlight that his presence is needed in a lineup that will be missing arguably its third-best forward. I expect Drouin’s contract to be a priority, and that he returns in 2024-25 at below market value.